With economic uncertainty and fears of a recession looming, it’s important to look to economic experts to understand the path of inflation, its relationship to interest rates and overall economic health.
That’s why you don’t want to miss this timely conversation between MBS Highway and Dr. Lacy Hunt as they discuss the future of the economy.
Dr. Lacy Hunt is the Executive Vice President and Chief Economist of Hoisington Investment Management Company. He is a nationally known speaker, the author of two books, and has been published in numerous magazines, periodicals and scholarly journals, including Barron's, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Christian Science Monitor, the Journal of Finance, the Financial Analysts Journal and the Journal of Portfolio Management. He has made numerous presentations in all the major financial and economic centers in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Africa and North America. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank both published his research.
Click here to listen to the full interview. If you'd like a link to Lacy's slides, please email social@mbshighway.com. And if you're looking for the highlights, make sure you listen to these segments:
[00:03:38] History of the Fed with Paul Volcker.
[00:07:51] Comparing Jerome Powell to Paul Volcker on inflation and the role of money, and the crucial similarities and differences to note.
[00:09:45] M2 and ODL and why they matter.
[00:17:01] History and outlook of total reserves.
[00:18:13] Why now is the worst cost of living increase since the 1980s.
[00:19:55] What to know about personal income and personal savings today.
[00:23:05] Critical pre-recessionary indicators we’re seeing today.
[00:23:26] Why manufacturing is at recessionary levels.
[00:26:46] The seven recessionary indicators that the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) looks at – and whether they’re moving higher or lower today.
[00:34:08] Real average of GDP and GDI, and why this is confirmation that the economy is in stationary mode.
[00:34:50] The latest on productivity and why this is a good thing for inflation but also a sign of layoffs.
[00:36:23] What to know about the yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year, which is an important leading economic indicator.
[00:38:08] What’s happening with exports – and why this matters.
[00:38:44] The weakness of the dollar and what it means for inflation.
[00:40:20] Lacy’s recession forecast.
[00:41:54] The critical side effects of debt levels.
[00:42:34] What key dates in long-term Treasury rates can tell us about today.
[00:46:10] Lacy’s inflation forecast for the first and second quarters of next year and what it means for the 10-year Treasury yield.
[00:49:51] The future of mortgage rates and housing.
[00:54:00] The headwinds of quantitative tightening and high debt.
[01:02:56] Is there a risk the Fed does too much or too little?
[01:06:44] The difference between a housing price and a housing activity recession, and what we’re seeing today.
